Obama won the national popular vote by 2.8 percentage points and carried Virginia by 3.1 percentage points, giving Virginia, at least for now, a slim Democratic lean of 0.3 percentage points. No state flipped from Democratic-leaning to Republican-leaning.īy the count as of now, Mr. Relative to the national popular vote, Virginia was the only state to flip from Republican-leaning in 2008 to Democratic-leaning in 2012. However, Virginia’s small shift happened to be across the nation’s partisan dividing line. It was just one percentage point more left-leaning in 2012 relative to the country. Arranged by the margin of victory relative to the national popular vote, the states - with a few exceptions - fall in the same order as they did in 2008.Ĭolorado - the tipping point state in 2008 - barely budged relative to the nation and so played the role of tipping point again in 2012. Twenty-six states moved by two percentage points or less. Romney’s coattails were short, as Democrats won surprising victories in Senate races in North Dakota and Montana.īut over all, when the swing in the national political environment is subtracted out, most states didn’t shift that far left or right. McCain in the northern Great Plains states, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming. West Virginia, too, seems to have moved even further away from the Democratic Party at the presidential level. Left alone by the campaigns, Indiana and Missouri seem to have reverted to their normal Republican lean. Both were battleground states in 2008 but were largely uncontested in 2012. Florida is still a red-leaning state, but by under two percentage points now.Īt the other end of the spectrum, Mr. But Florida’s fast-growing, non-Cuban Hispanic population appears to have given Mr. Romney would have carried the state in 2012. If the Sunshine State’s relative lean had remained around 4 percent, Mr. Obama carried Florida, but the state was 4.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation. Wisconsin, home to vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan, moved furthest right, shifting by three percentage points toward the Republicans.įlorida moved furthest left. The 2012 battleground states hardly shifted at all relative to the national popular vote. Obama’s highest levels of support among Republicans were in New York and New Jersey. Obama on the president’s trip to see the damage in New Jersey) had an effect. There is the possibility that Sandy (and Gov. Two of the states that moved furthest to the left bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey and New York. Non-demographic factors may have also shifted the vote in certain states. Many of the states that, relative to the nation, moved toward the Democratic Party have large minority populations, including New Jersey, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York and Maryland. Romney, the vote was 15 percentage points more Republican-leaning in 2012. In Utah, where a majority of residents share the Mormon faith with Mr. Alaska, where the 2008 Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin served as governor, was 12 percentage points less Republican-leaning this year. Some of the most emphatic shifts are explained by home-state effects. State-Level Margins Relative to the Nation But the partisan lean in most states moved only slightly, and only one state flipped from leaning toward one party to the other. Obama, and 21 states shifted toward the Republican Party. Relative to the national popular vote, the picture is muddled: 29 states and the District of Columbia shifted toward Mr. The vote in most counties, too, shifted to the political right.īut separating out the national political environment from more fundamental and potentially longer-lasting political shifts at the state level is harder. In 46 states and the District of Columbia, President Obama did worse in 2012 than he did in 2008, winning by less or losing by more. Obama leads former Mitt Romney by just under three percentage points nationally. The economic recovery was steady but tepid, and while some states are still tallying votes, Mr. His fight for a second term was more of a slog. Obama defeated John McCain by seven percentage points in the national popular vote. Four years ago, aided by an unpopular Republican incumbent, a financial crisis and a wave of enthusiasm, Mr. For President Obama, re-election proved to be a more nerve-racking ride than his election.
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